Speakership tussle: The unfolding play against Ajibola

House of Representatives Speakership aspirant, Rep Muraina Ajibola faces more odds at home than outside in his quest to emerge the head of the House.
The first major obstacle he has to surmount is in his South-West zone where there might be protest votes to rubbish the choice of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
Going by some permutations, if the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN legislators decide to look the other way and vote for an opponent then Ajibola could as well say good bye to his ambition.
It is assumed that the heavy weight presence of former President Olusegun Obasanjo and now Board of Trustees, BOT, Chairman may negatively impact on his chances.
Some legislators who spoke to the Vanguard under anonymity said the domineering attitude of the former number one citizen may work against Ajibola’s aspirations as most legislators from the North may just see him as another OBJ boy in the saddle.
Others however feel that since the Ota farmer had already sold the idea to President Goodluck Jonathan it may just be uhuru for Ajibola who it is claimed does not enjoy a good rapport with his fellow legislators.
Some see him as one legislator that is not sociable a tendency that could lead to a domineering attitude like his godfather, Obasanjo and this is seen as one major odd that might just scupper his chances.

*Ajibola

The about one hundred legislators returning to the House may as such give their bulk votes to his opponent which is about a hundred to scuttle his ready made victory by the ruling PDP.
The South East challenge may also play a prominent role against his candidacy.
Those gunning for the position from that zone include: Bethel Nnaemeka Amadi, Eziuche Ubani, Emeka Ihedioha and Ogbuefi Ozomgbachi all high ranking members of the Sixth National Assembly. They are men who understand the House inside and out and do have what it takes to mobilise support from all quarters within very short notice.
Rising from a meeting last weekend, the Southeast caucus in very plain language told the PDP to reverse its zoning of the speakership to the South west stating that the decision is anti-democratic.
In the statement the legislators said “we reject the zoning formula recently adopted by the PDP with respect to major offices of government at the federal level, which we consider skewed against the South East Zone.”
“The decision of the expanded caucus of the PDP to exclude the South East Zone from occupying the offices of either the President of the Senate or Speaker, House of Representatives in spite of the demand from the South East Governors, Ohaneze Ndigbo, South East caucus of the House of Representatives and indeed other prominent Sons and Daughters of the South East is most disappointing, regrettable and an affront to the collective psyche and well being of the people of the Zone”
Some legislators, however believe that the delay of the South East to start the campaign for speakership has weakened their position on the matter.
The sudden interest of the North West insisting that the next speaker must emerge from there is another minus against Ajibola’s candidacy.
Aminu Tumbawal, a ranking officer in the House is now the centre of attraction as he is being tipped to slug it out with the South West candidate.
The governors, however, have a major role to play in the speakership tussle. If peradventure the legislators disobey their chief executives they may just be planning their exits from the house in subsequent election this may be to Ajibola’s advantage. That is if the PDP gets its governors to enforce the zoning policy. As such, the odds that favour the candidacy of Ajibola snowballs around the party itself.
The decision of the South West PDP to field Ajibola via a letter sent to the Presidency and PDP National secretariat that he is their sole candidate will help arm twist many legislators if the presidency and national PDP finally endorse him.
If it is a party decision the new members who would want to come back may have no choice than to vote along party lines but the old members if they vote independently could still derail the Ajibola train.
However, members determined to assert the independence of the House were last weekend converging around Tambuwal in his campaign suite at a major Four State hotel along the Airport Road in Abuja.